What has COP28 achieved and what’s in store for COP29?

COP28 delivered only limited progress

COP28 concluded nearly two months ago. While happening, emotions ran high, but the agreement to transition away from fossil fuels – the main outcome of the UAE Consensus – was hailed as a major breakthrough. So, all’s well that ends well?

Probably not. A close look at what was achieved reveals few genuine breakthroughs and little to no progress in many important policy areas.

Let’s start with the political highlight, the commitment to ‘transition away’ from fossil fuels. What does that actually mean? Chances are it will mean different things to different people. It definitely does not mean ‘phase out.’ Rather, it was the only way to secure the required backing from a diverse body of governments pursuing different agendas. The declaration sounds good in principle but may mean very little in practice.

Prior to COP28, many western governments argued that phasing out fossil fuels must be part of a policy response to the first global stocktake. The stocktake suggested that efforts on climate mitigation, adaptation and finances would need to step up to meet the targets set out in the Paris Agreement. Even considering the commitments to triple renewables and improve energy efficiency and the launch of a nuclear alliance, COP28 cannot be deemed a success in terms of climate-change mitigation.

The picture is similar for climate-change adaptation and finance. Governments wanted to make strong progress on the Global Goal on Adaptation and to double adaptation funding to developing countries. This did not happen. While governments agreed on how to operationalise the Loss and Damage Fund, they disagreed on the fundamental issue of who should contribute and who should benefit.

In the same mould, COP28 did not deliver on Article 6 setting out global carbon markets and collaborative non-market approaches to promote mitigation and adaptation.

What’s in store for COP29?

Every COP claims that it offers the last opportunity to address the climate challenges we face. However, COP is a process, not a series of annual high-profile events. COP28 left an unfinished agenda on most issues. In the run up to COP29, which will take place Azerbaijan in November, working groups need to make progress on technical issues such as Article 6 operationalisation. Perhaps progress can even be made on climate adaptation and finance, but it is difficult to determine who would instigate this. We should also remember that COP29 will start a week after the hugely important US presidential election. The outcome of this election, either way, will make a huge difference to the COP process. And finally, there will be a new European Commission, most likely less green than the current outgoing administration.

Based on all of this, COP29 is more likely to follow in the footsteps of COP28 than to be a game changer.

Policy analysis forms part of CRU’s Sustainability and Emissions Service. If you want to discuss how policy will impact your company’s activities, please get in touch and we’d be happy to discuss our work.