Explore key economic and market forecasts for 2023 from CRU experts
2022 was a turbulent year in commodity markets. The war in Ukraine, the magnitude of distortion to supply chains and trade, the impact of energy prices on industry, the slowdown in demand growth and of course the dramatic rise and fall in commodity prices over the last 12 months or so meant that there were many reasons why it was challenging for the mining, metals, fertilizers and financial sectors.
In this feature, our global team of experts provide insight into how they think the road ahead would best be navigated. Read, watch and listen as our experts discuss the key risks, challenges and emerging silver linings likely to shape global economies and commodity markets in 2023.
Slow demand growth amidst possible global recession; lower commodity prices; high energy prices, and with these all pointing to lower margins for many industries. Regrettably, we don’t foresee a quick end to the war in Ukraine, nor a quick end to the spread of Covid in China.
Chris Houlden
Divisional Managing Director, Head of Analysis, CRU Group
What is the Forecast for Global Economic Growth?
As we continue to deal with the impacts of a tough global economy in 2022, both risks and opportunities are to be expected. Discover CRU's top 10 calls as we look ahead and forecast key factors that will drive the commodity market in 2023.
Watch this video where CRU's Head of Economics, Alex Tuckett, shares his insights on the global economic outlook for 2023:
2023 – The complexity of decision-making multiplies as we face a global materials transition
While the world is scratching its head and figuring out how to navigate the uncertain trading context of today, the critical requirements of a warming world are demanding very focused attention to move from ambition and hot air to probability and plans.
Much of the past decade has been spent building consensus on the need for some ambitious but realistic targets for decarbonisation and on prioritising the necessary industrial changes. With some of these trends, including electric mobility and energy transition, firmly established, thoughts are now turning towards the practical challenges of rebuilding our industrial infrastructure to meet these targets.
2023 will be a year of change, for developing new understanding, for modelling a multitude of possible futures, for understanding new commodity supply chains and for starting to answer some very fundamental questions about how to support global economic development with some very smart technology / commodity based solutions.
Rebecca Gordon
Chief Executive Officer, CRU Consulting
Steel Expectations & Outliers: What’s in store for the steel market
At the start of each year, CRU continues to feature top expectations and outliers for the year ahead. This annual list of expectations is a thought piece, meant to stimulate internal discussions, scenario analysis, and strategic planning around potential risks to the markets we cover. This 2023 edition covers six expectations and three potential outliers.
Top 10 calls of 2023 for the fertilizer market
2022 was a turbulent year for the fertilizer market. Prices rallied to record highs following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with the market fearful of drastic supply shortfalls. But producers, farmers and policymakers responded with ramped-up output, application cuts and softer sanctions respectively.
Prices consequently end 2022 significantly lower than the March peak. But a volatile trajectory is expected to remain in 2023. European nitrogen production will continue to be plagued by high gas prices. But government support and ample supply from elsewhere will see prices decouple from marginal costs. Demand is set to recover, albeit modestly.
The momentum behind low-emissions ammonia will continue, and supply-side subsidies may be more forthcoming in response to the US inflation reduction act. CRU Fertilizers top ten calls of 2023 provide a high-level overview of the direction and trends in this important market.
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